10 Dec 2025 2 min read BiQ Journal

BiQ Journal: 12/10/25 (MDNAF/MDNA) CORRECTED

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Earlier today, Medicenna Therapeutics presented updated data for MDNA11 at ESMO. The data is still early, and we don't yet have a clear picture of durability, but overall, the data update looked encouraging to me.

https://ir.medicenna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/medicenna-updates-mdna11-clinical-trial-results-esmo-io-congress

The closest comparator I can find for MDNA11+Keytruda is Innovent's IBI363, which is a PD-1/IL-2 bispecific. Thus, I think the comparison is still somewhat meaningful.

Here's a summary of ORR in ICI-resistant patients across each drug's respective indications based on the latest datasets I could find:

Please note that MDNA11 has also shown encouraging monotherapy activity in several other ICI-resistant metastatic tumors, including pancreatic, breast, colorectal, endometrial, bladder, anal cancer, and melanoma.

Where MDNA11+Keytruda looks truly differentiated, however, is safety, with low rates of Grade >=3 AEs with MDNA11 vs. 17%-24% with IBI363. Also, there are no discontinuations with MDNA11 vs. 5% with 363. Also, unlike 363, MDNA11 (so far) exhibits no immune-related or metabolic AEs and no cases of vascular leak syndrome.

This is obviously early data, and I'm attempting a cross-trial comparison targeting different primary solid tumor indications, with assuredly different trial protocols. So take it fwiw.

However, keep in mind that Takeda recently signed a licensing agreement with Innovent worth $1.2B up front, with a potential deal value of around $11B plus royalties. This is very meaningful for a company like Medicenna, with a current MC of under $100M.

It's still very early innings, and we still need to see longer-term OS data. I am cautiously optimistic, however, given the high DCR rates for MDNA11, as DCR can often be a good predictor of OS. Still, any investment in MDNAF should be considered highly speculative, but R/R looks appealing to me. I plan to keep a close eye on MDNA11.

Full disclosure: MDNAF is not included in the BiQAP, but I am long in my personal speculative portfolio.

MDNAF share price at time of publication: $1.00

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